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The Numbers Make No Sense, But Things Are Better?

The economic indicators are a jumbled mess…and that may be on purpose.

The financial markets soar, but fewer stocks have rising prices. Corporate profits reach all-time highs, but employees receive their lowest share of it 1947…as they struggle to reduce consumer debt that hit a record high in 2012.

The employment picture is even more confusing.

The U.S. economy added 288,000 in April 2014, and the headline unemployment rate declined from 6.7% in March to 6.3%. Additionally, upward revisions for the two prior months mean 713,000 people found work from February through April. That seems positive, even hopeful…until one learns 806,000 people left the workforce in the month of April alone and that the exodus from the workforce, not the number of people finding work, accounts for the decrease in April’s unemployment rate. Interestingly, people leaving the workforce since 2009 account for all the unemployment rate decline during the Obama administration, and for dropping the labor force participation rate to a 35-year low.

Despite this, the press says the job market is improving, going so far as to say leading indicators signal the pace of U.S. economic growth is poised to snap back. How, or even when, that might occur when First Quarter GDP growth for this year was 0.1% – yep, ZERO-POINT-ONE…PERCENT – is mystifying. Equally mystifying is how the experts conclude weather caused the poor growth growth, but did not affect stock prices. More mystifying still is how the president concludes an economy, absent of growth, is improving.

So, stock markets are high, but not that many stocks are rising; businesses make more money, but employees see less of it, while consumer and public debt are at all time highs, here and abroad. Some find work, but even more give up looking; the economy does not grow, but we hear it is getting better. Yep, clear as mud.

The mixed messages don’t stop there. The president says of “income inequality”: “I believe this is the defining challenge of our time”: [youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmRgU2B1pe0[/youtube]
Yet, his policy “prescriptions” may only exacerbate the disease:

    His minimum wage increase will reduce the number of jobs, according to the CBO and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve,

    The president wants Obamacare implementation “follow through”, though the CBO has determined it will cut work hours by the equivalent of 2,000,000 full-time jobs, and

    Obama’s “Promise Zones” sound like Clinton’s “Empowerment Zones”, which made poorly validated claims of helping the poor, and like the “War on Poverty”, which has cost $15 Trillion (perhaps more) over the last half-century, with the Census Bureau reporting a higher poverty rate now than in 1966. (Reflect on that: We have spent the rough equivalent of the current national debt on a project that has missed its mark for the last 50 years. One can only wonder where the economy might be had that money remained in the private sector.)

It is hard to see how any “income inequality” challenge would be met by reducing the number of available work opportunities, or by doubling down on policies that have not worked for decades.

Today’s U.S. economy is a modern retelling of the Emperor’s New Clothes, complete with a media chorus that works to explain away the nakedness much of the public has already seen.

Simply put, things are not better for U.S. economy. The number of people in the workforce, as a percentage of the working population, has not been this low since 1979. Some may recall that the Jimmy Carter economy is what led to the Reagan Revolution in 1980, and that Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 by helping to put Americans back to work after the Carter years: [youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY[/youtube]

Unfortunately, though Americans considered jobs and the economy their top priority 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, the federal government maintained a different perspective. Instead of focusing, the president has instead “pivoted” to jobs and the economy so many times that he resembles a whirling dervish: [youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jwn4dJcl08[/youtube]
The result from all that “spin” is 11.3 million people out of the workforce, against approximately 4.1 million jobs added since 2009. Add to that, a great number of the jobs gained are part-time, not full-time. Add to that, median income for U.S. households is down since the Great Recession ENDED.

For all the confusing and conflicting economic news, one thing is quite clear: America has failed to do, from 2008 through 2014, what she accomplished from 1980 to 1984, even though — with double-digit unemployment, inflation, and federal interest rates — the 1980’s began with a much more troubled economy.

What seems most odd is that all the bad information about the economy is even worse for blacks, who voted 95% for Obama in 2008, and 93% for Obama in 2012. Despite “depression level” unemployment, higher poverty rates than any ethnic group, and losing ground “in every single leading economic indicator category”, many blacks remain willing to defend Obama against (imagined) racial attacks on him (something the president encourages), but not willing to defend themselves against the economic attack of his policies on them.

A telling quote is this:

    “Still, 61 percent regard the economy negatively, including a majority of all age and income levels, most independents and 80 percent of Republicans. Only among Democrats, people with a postgraduate education and blacks do a majority regard the economy as good.”

So you have to be either a Democrat, highly educated, or black to believe the economy is doing well, even though it is not doing well. That is a strange collection of people who simply do not believe that “fat meat is greasy”.

As long as such people ignore the essential facts to support an ideology, there will always be an ideological struggle. As long as the nation allows those who share such an ideological view to hold elective office, there will always be unnecessary economic struggles…and people purposely contorting data to make things seem better than they are.

And until the clear thinking among the American people either purge or abandon a government containing such ideologues, we may never see “Morning in America” again.

…But, Mr. President, They Liked Their Plan…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoV0NeHNklk[/youtube]
That was the false rhetoric. While Obamacare purported to reduce the number of those without health insurance in the U.S., it now has the opposite effect, with more insured people losing the coverage they had and preferred than previously uninsured getting new policies. It is not possible to say how many more, since the administration has not released data on Obamacare signups, and others are not sure if the available numbers are accurate.

This much, however, is known: In Florida, 300,000 will see their individual policies “transitioned” to Obamacare, but not cancelled.

Seriously? The insurance they had, and liked, goes away in favor of new insurance that contains what they did not use (the “old” policies did not contain things like “maternity and newborn care, mental health, substance abuse services and emergency services”, which a “qualified” health plan must now include), will cost more, and is unavailable, due to the 0.4% signup success rate for those trying to get coverage through HealthCare.gov. That, in someone’s mind, is not a cancellation.

Why a healthy, sober male would need, or should pay for, maternity care or substance abuse services is difficult to understand, as is the government’s de facto assertion that people are incapable of deciding, for themselves, what makes up minimally acceptable health insurance coverage. That is, of course, until one remembers the new policy premiums will be more expensive.

Simply put, it is not about providing affordable health insurance to those who already had coverage; it is about making sure those who had coverage pay more to cover someone else.

We also know that, in California, Kaiser Permanente cancelled 160,000 individual policies, and Blue Shield cancelled 119,000 policies back in September; nearly 2/3 of the Blue Shield customers will see rate increases. In addition to the “Florida Flow” and the “California Carnage”, Pennsylvanians are gettin’ dropped like it’s hot: Highmark, in Pittsburgh, is shedding 20% of their individual policies, and the major insurer in Philadelphia is kissing 45% of its individual polices goodbye.

Since insurance companies are canceling policies, instead of individuals opting not to renew coverage, can anyone assert that these people can keep the coverage they liked, as the president said they could?

And are those who liked their doctor able to keep their doctor, which was the other part of the president’s “pledge”? Well, it depends on whether:

    • The doctor still accepts insurance. Some bailed on working with insurance companies in the Obamacare era, even before the website debacle?

    • The doctor still owns, or remains part of, a private enterprise which practices locally? Some argue that by 2014, such doctors will be harder to find.

    • You’re a Medicare patient, in which case, you need to get lucky.

As people waste time worrying about why a website doesn’t work, it is increasingly clear that the president’s assurances to those already insured were lies designed to encourage them to skip the debate, believing they would be unaffected by whatever happened. They are now learning how much their apathy may cost them.

Indeed, a bigger problem than people’s difficulty in accessing the website, will be their difficulties once they do. For one, the website seems not to respect the privacy of those who do manage to log on. Add that to what doctors must request and record under Obamacare, and the U.S. healthcare system may gather more information about U.S. citizens than the NSA.

The second major difficulty is the cost. The Manhattan Institute has calculated that Obamacare will double health insurance premiums for younger men, and hike them for younger women by 55% to 62%.

Of course, higher premiums run counter to candidate Obama’s 2008 campaign pledges:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66bgpRRSDD4[/youtube]which he repeated during the re-elect campaign: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4rkKzajF7Y[/youtube]

Interestingly, there are Democrats: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXpfox_4-1I[/youtube]who have another view, including the HHS Secretary, and acknowledge Obamacare will not lower costs.

To be fair, Obama’s remarks, about people keeping what they liked were quite subtle. All Obama said was if you liked your doctor or plan that you CAN keep it; he did not say how much it would cost anyone to do so.

This interesting fact remains: with 300,000 in Florida, and another 279,000 in California losing their health insurance, Obamacare took health insurance policies from more people, in just 2 states, than it provided to people throughout the entire nation. All who would dispute this need do just one thing: get the Obama administration to release its information regarding how many got policies, either via the website or any other signup mechanism. Rest assured, if Obamacare participation were strong, then that would be the only thing Jay Carney would discuss with the press….instead of ramblings like this:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrMbG4byoqQ[/youtube]

So, Obama was less than truthful regarding his promises to the already insured, about how his signature legislative achievement would impact them. Is anyone honestly surprised by that…or simply by how large the fabrications were and how far they went?

…and all to pave the way for the single payer system the Democrat Party wants to impose:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXgSKwYMnWo[/youtube] which will emerge from the ashes and lies of Obamacare.

Bankruptcy, Thy Name Is Democrat

What do these U.S. locations have in common: Central Falls, RI; Detroit, MI; San Bernardino, CA; Mammoth Lakes, CA; Stockton, CA; Jefferson County, AL; Harrisburg, PA; and Boise County, ID? Well, each has filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy since 2010.

However, there is something else, shared with the financially troubled cities of Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Miami; also with Atlantic City and Camden, NJ, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

It is also common to the following states: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

What these cities and states share, along with their financial challenges, is that the Democrat Party controls nearly every one of them; sometimes, it has for decades.

Consider Detroit, which on July 18, 2013, became the largest U.S. city ever to seek bankruptcy protection. No Republican has been mayor since January, 1962; the City Council has not had a Republican majority or plurality since the 1950’s. Democrats have run Detroit for more than a half century…into the ground.

As for the last Republican mayors in the other bankrupt locations:

    • Central Falls – 1930,
    • San Bernardino – 1993,
    • Stockton – only one since 1990,
    Birmingham, Alabama, Jefferson County’s seat – 1975,
    Harrisburg – 1982, and
    • Boise County, Idaho’s Commission appears majority Republican of late, bucking the trend.

Among the troubled, but not (yet?) bankrupt cities:

    Baltimore last elected a Republican mayor in 1963,
    Philadelphia – no GOP mayor in more than 60 years,
    Pittsburgh was last run by a Republican in 1934, and
    Miami has never had a Republican mayor.

Additionally:

    • Atlantic City’s last Republican mayor was black; James Usry ended his term in 1990,
    • A Republican last served as mayor of Camden, NJ from 1935 to 1936,
    Chicago’s last Republican mayor served in 1931, and for 43 of the last 82 years, the Democrat running the city was named Richard Daley, and
    Los Angeles boasts one Republican mayor since 1961.

There is more. In a report that identified 20 U.S cities that could go bankrupt after Detroit, at least 15 of them are Democrat-run. Of the 10 US cities with the highest percentages of residents living in poverty, Democrats have run them for decades. The point is hard to miss.

Turning attention to states with financial challenges:

    • California: 4 Democrat and 4 Republican governors since 1959. However, since 1992, Democrats have run the State Assembly for all but 4 years, and the State Senate for all but 2,

    • New York: Since 1958, 5 of 8 governors were Democrats. Since 1992, Republicans ran the Senate all but 4 years, but Democrats controlled the Assembly each year,

    • Illinois: Since 1991, 2 Democrat and 2 Republican governors; and Democrats controlled the State Senate for 12 of 22 years, and the House of Representatives for 20 of 22 years,

    • New Jersey: Since 1990 – 4 Democrat and 3 Republican, administrations. Since 1992, Republicans ran the Senate for 10 years, there were 2 years of shared control, and Democrats ran it for 10 years…the last 10 years; in the State House, Republican control for 10 years, followed by Democrat Control for the last 12, and

    • Massachusetts: Since Michael Dukakis’ 1991 retirement, there has been 1 Democrat governor, but Democrats kept majorities in both the Senate and the House.

To be “fair”, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are troubled states under Republican control. Ohio has 24 governments and 6 school districts plagued by pension funding issues and an unwillingness to cut spending despite declining revenues. Pennsylvania has $47 Billion in unfunded pension liabilities and no political will to address the problem. Michigan halts between dealing with rising healthcare costs, or kicking that can down the road.

However, the political scales may not balance as much as some might believe; the policies at the root of these financial ills have a decidedly liberal Democrat aroma.

The problem of unfunded pension liabilities traces back to President Kennedy’s desire to grab union votes for Democrats. Both Franklin Delano Roosevelt and former AFL-CIO president George Meaney considered collective bargaining for public employees bad for taxpayers. However, when Kennedy saw that New York City Mayor Robert Wagner built a reliable Democrat voting bloc by granting collective-bargaining rights to the city’s public employees, he put his party’s good ahead of taxpayer benefit and issued an Executive Order in 1962, granting those rights to unionized federal employees. The practice spread across the nation. Now, governments have collectively bargained themselves into more than $4.5 Trillion in unfunded pension liabilities.

Problems with healthcare costs trace back to the 1965 origination of Medicare and Medicaid under President Lyndon Johnson. Government socialization of medical costs is now a financial disaster, with Medicare facing $38.6 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, according to its Board of Trustees. Also, Medicare heads for bankruptcy in 2016 or 2024, depending upon what is true about Obamacare.

It took 17 years for all 50 states to “voluntarily” participate in Medicaid, and 11 more for President Clinton to announce Medicaid was bankrupting them. Add the fact Obamacare makes Medicaid more costly for states, and that uninsured patients often have better medical outcomes than those using Medicaid, and one wonders how Medicare, Medicaid, or Obamacare benefit the nation. However, despite poorer health care and worsened state balance sheets, liberal Democrats use the programs to show themselves as “caring”.

More often than not in the U.S., when governments have financial trouble, Democrats are at the helm of government and, even when not in charge, policies originated and associated with Democrats cause the problems. For example, Democrats portray Social Security as an effective and successful program.

However, it is hard to imagine how a program, short nearly $10 Trillion over the next 75 years, and facing massive growth in the number of beneficiaries, meets any reasonable success criteria…until you consider how it delivers the senior vote to Democrats.

To their credit, Democrats convinced the nation that they care about the people, even as they devastate them financially. By the time Democrats finish showing their concern for people, no government anywhere is likely to have a dime to spend on them.

Perhaps it is time for a real change?

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